Reversal · LH CISD · A+
October 27 — Keep More Than One Bullet, In The Chamber.
The lesson today: keep more than one bullet in the chamber. Two shorts. The first, off the inverse of the first presented FVG, stopped out for −1R. The second, off the LH CISD, was the A+ and paid +3R as ES broke the equal lows. I saw traders take the first short, lose too much, and miss the second one because they were trying to force the first idea to be right. Net +2R.
WIN · +2R NETShort 2 · Reversal · A+ · +3RShort 1 · A- · −1RLH CISDNo Longs In HTF Bearish Gaps
Would You Have Taken It?
Here is what the A+ short needed. Would you have taken it?
✓
HTF bias — Inside the Daily and 4H bearish fair value gaps. No longs
✓
Premium — Price was in the premium on the higher time frame
✓
Sweep of the highs — Took the pre-market high and the 15m high
✓
SMT — 15m SMT at the pre-market high
✓
CISD confirmation — LH CISD on the 1m
✓
Draw on liquidity — The 15m low, pre-market low and the ES equal lows below
The rejection from the lower time frame gap scared me a little in the trade. Looking at it after with a clear head, it was A+. There was no reason not to be in it.
Short 2: The A+ Off The LH CISD
Reversal · A+ · +3R
Price ran the pre-market high and the 15m high, then printed a LH CISD. I got short at about 9:45 with the 15m low and the pre-market low below as the draw. I moved to breakeven once the move started. ES closed through its equal lows, price flushed, and I closed into it for +3R with barely any drawdown.
Short 1: Inverse Of The First Presented FVG
A- · −1R
The first idea was the inverse of the first presented fair value gap at the open, in line with the bearish bias. Price hunted it and I took the −1R. No biggie. Losses are part of trading. The bias didn't change, so I waited for the market to re-manipulate the high and give me a CISD.
The Takeaway
Keep more than one bullet in the chamber.
The first short lost. The second one was the A+. If you size the first idea like it has to work, a −1R turns into a hole you're trying to dig out of, and you miss the trade that actually pays. The first idea doesn't have to be right. The system just has to be there for the next one.
Watch For Tomorrow
FOMC week. Probably a no-trade day.
FOMC days usually chop until the announcement comes out, and I don't trade FOMC. I'll still be live to watch what happens, but I probably won't place a trade tomorrow. Sitting out is a position too.
Your Turn
First short or second short: which one would you have taken?
Answer in the Oraxis Discord. I reply to every one.
The Grade
Win · +2R net
+3R (A+) · −1R (A-)
+3R (A+) · −1R (A-)
Net+2R
Short 2+3R · A+
Short 1−1R · A-
EntryLH CISD
DrawES equal lows
Why Post Every Day
Wins, breakevens, and the days I sit on my hands all get posted. The record only means something if it's complete. No hype, just process.