Reversal · LH CISD · A+
October 26 — Wrong On The Bias, Fine On The Account.
The lesson today: being wrong is fine, but your account should be fine as well. My bias was short and price went higher. I passed the long on my real account because it was the manipulation leg against my bias, and took it on paper instead. Then the A+ short set up and got stopped at breakeven. Two trades, both BE. Onto tomorrow.
BREAKEVENShort · Reversal · A+Long · Continuation · B- (Paper)LH CISDBias Was Wrong
Would You Have Taken It?
Here is what the A+ short needed. Would you have taken it?
✓
Fits the bias — Bearish bias, and price was above the midnight open
✓
Draw on liquidity — EQLs down below
✓
Sweep of the high — Took the 15m high from 10/26
✓
CISD confirmation — LH CISD on the 1m
–
SMT with ES — No SMT on this one
The long earlier was a valid setup too, but it was the manipulation leg against my bias. For me that is lower probability, so it stayed on paper.
The A+ Short: Reversal Off The LH CISD
Live account · Reversal · A+ · Breakeven
Price took the 15m high and printed a LH CISD. I shorted it with the EQLs below as the draw, target 29,169. Price dipped toward the 5 Min BISI, then turned and ran back up. The stop was at breakeven, so it closed BE, and price kept going higher from there. The bias was wrong, and the account was fine.
The Long I Kept On Paper
Paper · 15m Continuation · Retracement stage · B-
Price was inside a 15 Min bullish FVG and delivered up off it. A good setup, but my bias was short, so this was the manipulation leg. Trading that leg has been lower probability for me, so I took it on paper only. BE.
The Takeaway
Being wrong is fine. Your account should be fine as well.
I was wrong on the bias today, and that is not an issue. What matters is that even on the days I'm wrong, I'm still protecting my capital first. I passed the lower-probability leg, took the A+, and a breakeven stop kept the day flat. The bias can flip with structure. The system doesn't flip with P&L.
Watch For Tomorrow
Those EQLs.
The equal lows down below near 29,170 are still sitting there. Mark them on your chart before the open and watch how price treats them.
Vol 1 · Class 1 — Liquidity →Your Turn
The long against the bias, or wait for the short: which one would you have taken?
Answer in the Oraxis Discord. I reply to every one.
The Grade
Breakeven · 0R
A+ short (live) · B- long (paper)
A+ short (live) · B- long (paper)
ResultBE
Live tradeShort · A+
Paper tradeLong · B-
EntryLH CISD
BiasWrong
Why Post Every Day
Wins, breakevens, and the days I sit on my hands all get posted. The record only means something if it's complete. No hype, just process.