October 22 — NQ Rebalance, Then Lower.

ES reached into the Daily SIBI and created a bearish SMT, so I'm now looking for lower prices. The 4H wants a rebalance first. The picture perfect trade is a run up through the London and 1H highs toward the 12am open, then a drop to the premarket low from 10/20. The entry is the reaction at the top, not the direction.

BEARISHNQ FuturesOctober 22, 2026 · Pre-MarketBearish SMT (ES)Rebalance FirstDraw: Premarket Low 10/20

The Read In 30 Seconds

Daily

ES reached into the Daily SIBI and made a bearish SMT. Looking for lower

Rebalance before continuing lower, SSLs below

The picture perfect trade: run up, then reverse

The draw

Premarket low / prev day low from 10/20

Path

Up through the London and 1H highs toward the 12am open, then lower through the London / overnight low

Trigger

The reaction at the top of the run. No reaction, no short

1D1D — ES Reached The Daily SIBI And Made A Bearish SMT1 / 3

NQ 1D — 1D — ES Reached The Daily SIBI And Made A Bearish SMT

ES reached into the Daily SIBI and created a bearish SMT, so I'm now looking for lower prices. The SSLs below are the draw.

4H4H — Rebalance Before Continuing Lower2 / 3

NQ 4H — 4H — Rebalance Before Continuing Lower

On the 4H I want a rebalance before price continues lower. The path is a retracement up first, then delivery down toward the SSL below.

1H1H — Run The Highs, Then Lower. Our Picture Perfect Trade3 / 3

NQ 1H — 1H — Run The Highs, Then Lower. Our Picture Perfect Trade

This would give us our picture perfect trade. Price runs up through the London high and the 1H high toward the 12am open and overnight high, then reverses and delivers down through the London / overnight low to the premarket low from 10/20.

The One Thing To Respect

Direction being obvious is never the same as an entry being available. The Daily says lower, but price is already down off the highs, and shorting the low is chasing. The path runs up first.

My model enters on the reaction at the top of the rebalance, not on the direction being right. No reaction, no trade.

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