Reversal + Continuation · Longs Into The High
October 30 — The Read Was Right, The R Didn't Follow.
The read today: a manipulation higher before lower prices. That's exactly what the market did. Price ran to the 28,860 high, then sold off to about 28,610. I took three longs into the high: a CISD reversal and a CISD continuation that both closed at breakeven, and an IFVG continuation that stopped for −1R. Net −1R. Losses are part of the system. The bias didn't change.
LOSS · −1R NETLong 1 · CISD Reversal · BELong 2 · IFVG Continuation · −1RLong 3 · CISD Continuation · BEManipulation Higher, Then Lower
Would You Have Taken It?
Here was the read. Would you have played the run higher, or waited for the high and the move lower?
✓
Manipulation higher — Price ran into the 28,860 high just before 10:00
✓
Pre-market low swept — Price took the 10/30 pre-market low after the open, before Long 1
✓
Lower prices after — Sold off from the high to about 28,610 by 10:25
The direction was right. The longs were trading the manipulation, so they had less room than the move that came after.
Long 1: CISD Reversal
Reversal · CISD · BE
Price swept the 10/30 pre-market low right after the open. I got long off the CISD at about 28,726 with the 28,860 high as the target. Price came back to my entry around 9:40 and the trade closed at breakeven.
Long 2: IFVG Continuation
Continuation · IFVG · −1R
Second long off an IFVG at 28,768.75, stop 28,726.25, target 28,860.75. The 9:47 wick ran the stop and I took the −1R. Then price went to the target without me. No biggie. Losses are part of trading.
Long 3: CISD Continuation
Continuation · CISD · BE
Third long off a CISD at 28,768.50. Price ran into the 28,860 high just before 10:00, then reversed hard, and the trade closed at breakeven. That high was the manipulation. Everything after it was the lower prices I was looking for.
The Takeaway
You don't have to trade every day.
Two days of sitting out, then three trades on Friday. The read was right, the R didn't follow, and that's fine. It's 10x better to miss a trade than to force a bad one. The days you sit out protect the days you trade.
Watch For Tomorrow
Watch for a continuation lower.
The manipulation higher happened, and the lower prices came after. Next week, I'm watching for that move lower to continue. Don't fight it with longs unless the structure changes.
Your Turn
Longs into the high, or wait and short the move lower: which would you have taken?
Answer in the Oraxis Discord. I reply to every one.
The Grade
Loss · −1R net
BE · −1R · BE
BE · −1R · BE
Net−1R
Long 1BE · CISD
Long 2−1R · IFVG
Long 3BE · CISD
Target28,860 high
Why Post Every Day
Wins, breakevens, and the days I sit on my hands all get posted. The record only means something if it's complete. No hype, just process.