Reversal · CISD + MSS · A
October 19 — The Bias Was Backwards, The Qualifications Said Switch.
The lesson today: a bias is a plan with conditions, not an opinion you defend. This morning I was bearish, looking for a run up into the highs, then lower. Price did it backwards: it ran the premarket lows first and reversed. My conditions told me the bearish idea was no longer valid, so I switched. Long at the CISD, +2R.
WIN · +2RReversalCISD + MSSGrade A · Not A+Bias Flipped
Would You Have Taken It?
A reversal long right after a rejection from the 4H bearish FVG. Would you have taken it?
✓
Sweep — Premarket lows taken first.
✓
CISD — I entered at the CISD.
✓
MSS — Structure shifted higher after the sweep.
✓
SMT with ES — ES diverged at the low, and ES looked cleaner than NQ.
✕
HTF alignment — We'd just rejected from the C.E. of a 4H bearish FVG. That's why it's an A, not an A+.
I think this was a good trade. But there was a real justification to pass because of that 4H bearish reaction. Both answers are fine.
The Reversal — Premarket Lows, Then The CISD
Long · entry 29,711.25 · stop 29,653.25 · +2R
Price sold off from the open and ran through the premarket low. That's the opposite of the plan, which wanted the highs first. After the sweep, the LH CISD printed and I went long at it, 29,711.25, stop under the low at 29,653.25. Price displaced up through the 15m high. I de-risked, moved to break even, trimmed into the ES target, and trailed the runner.
The Takeaway
When I'm right, I'm right. When I'm wrong, I'm not prideful.
My bias isn't a guess I have to be right about. It comes with qualifications. When price breaks them, I don't argue with it. That bias is no longer valid, so I switch. Today the bearish read was backwards, and reading price live is what got me in the trade, not the morning call.
Watch For Tomorrow
Before the open, write down what makes your bias invalid.
Not just the direction. Name the condition that would make you switch sides. If price hits it, you already decided, so there's nothing to defend.
Vol 1 · Class 5 — APD Reversal →Your Turn
Reversal long right after a 4H bearish FVG rejection. Take it or pass?
Answer in the Oraxis Discord. I reply to every one.
The Grade
Win · +2R
Grade A
Grade A
Result+2R
ModelReversal
EntryCISD
GradeA
BiasFlipped
RunnerTrailed
Why Post Every Day
Wins, breakevens, and the days I sit on my hands all get posted. The record only means something if it's complete. No hype, just process.